Using a variety of sources from the Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS), and also the U.S. Census, I calculated the portion of prisoners who were black or white at various times, at approximately ten year gaps, between 1870 and 2020. All of the citations, for each datapoint, are given in this note.1 Most of the decisions which I made were obvious, and therefore I will not explain them. Those who wish to see the data in table form, or to see several notes that I took, should consult this Google Sheet. The one methodological factor that I will note is that data for 2020 may not be comparable to earlier dates. As noted by that year’s BJS report (p. 1),
The COVID-19 pandemic was largely responsible for the decline in prisoners under state and federal correctional authority. Courts significantly altered operations for part or all of 2020, leading to delays in trials and/or sentencing of persons, and this was reflected in the 40% decrease in admissions to state and federal prison from 2019.
Especially because there was a significant reduction in black overrepresentation in prisons between 2011 and 2020, it is possible that COVID related inefficiencies in the court system reduced black prison numbers by a greater portion than they reduced white prison numbers. However, the drop between 2000 and 2011 was of about the same magnitude as between 2011 and 2020, so it is possible that this was just the continuance of an earlier trend.
The data, expressed in graphical form, looks as follows:
1870—Crime & Population: [Census Vol. 1] Statistics of the Population table XIX, “Pauperism and Crime, 1870-1850, by States and Territories.” https://www.census.gov/library/publications/1872/dec/1870a.html.
1880—Crime: [Census] Miscellaneous Statistics table XI, “Prisoners, by Sex, Nativity and Race: 1880.” Population: [Census] Population Tables table Ia, “The United States, in Aggregate, and by Sex, Nativity, and Race.” https://www.census.gov/library/publications/1883/dec/vol-01-population.html.
1890—Crime: [Census] Report on Crime, Pauperism, and Benevolence in the United States table I, “Prisoners, by States and Territories and by Color, Nativity, and Race.” https://www.census.gov/library/publications/1895/dec/volume-3.html. Population: [Census] Report on Population of the United States table 9, “Population by Sex, General Nativity, and Color, by States and Territories: 1890,” and table 10, “Colored Population Classified as Negroes…” https://www.census.gov/library/publications/1895/dec/volume-1.html.
1904—Crime: [Census] Prisoners and Juvenile Delinquents in Institutions (chapter 2) table 2, “Prisoners Enumerated…” https://www.census.gov/library/publications/1904/dec/prisoners-1904.html. Population (1900): [Census] Population (part 1) table 9, “Population by Sex, General Nativity, and Color, by States and Territories: 1900.” https://www.census.gov/library/publications/1901/dec/vol-01-population.html.
1910—Crime: [Census Bulletin 121] Prisoners and Juvenile Delinquents table 3, “Prisoners Enumerated on January 1, 1910…” https://www.census.gov/library/publications/1910/dec/bulletins/demographics.html. Population: [Census (Vol. 1)] Population, General Report and Analysis (chapter 2) table 1, “Population Enumerated at the Census of 1910.” https://www.census.gov/library/publications/1913/dec/vol-1-population.html.
1923—Crime: [Census] Prisoners, 1923 table 29 (no title). https://www.google.com/books/edition/Prisoners_1923/EBYDLUUJ-qgC?hl=en. Population (1920): [Census (Vol. 2)] Population, General Report and Analytical Tables (chapter 1) table 1, “Color or Race, for the United States: 1790-1920.” https://www.census.gov/library/publications/1922/dec/vol-02-population.html.
1933—Crime: [Census] County and City Jails (1933) table 8, “Prisoners Present by Color, Nativity, and Sex, for the United States.” https://catalog.hathitrust.org/Record/100120652. Population (1930): [Census (Vol. 2)] Population, Number and Distribution of Inhabitants (chapter 2) table 1, “Population of the United States by Color or Race and Nativity: 1930.” https://www.census.gov/library/publications/1933/dec/1930a-vol-02-population.html.
1940—[Census] Special Report on Institutional Population 14 Years and Over table 4, “Age of the Institutional Population…” https://www.census.gov/library/publications/1943/dec/population-institutional.html. Population: [Census (Vol. 2)] Characteristics of the Population table II, “Race and Nativity by Sex, for the United States: 1940.” https://www.census.gov/library/publications/1943/dec/population-vol-2.html.
1950—Crime: [Census (Vol. 4)] Special Reports (Part 2), Institutional Population table 4, “Age of Persons in Correctional Facilities…” https://www.census.gov/library/publications/1953/dec/population-vol-04.html. Population: [Census (Vol. 2]) Characteristics of the Population (Part 1) table 35, “Race and Nativity of the Population of the Continental United States and of the Population Abroad, by Sex: 1950.” https://www.census.gov/library/publications/1953/dec/population-vol-02.html.
1960—Crime: [Census] Final Reports (Vol. 2) Subject Report, Inmates of Institutions [PC(2)-8A] table 4, “Age of persons Under Custody…” https://www.census.gov/library/publications/1963/dec/population-pc-2-8a.html. Population: [Census] Final Reports (Vol. 1) Supplementary Report, Negro Population [PC(S1)-52] table 1, “Total and Nonwhite Population, 1960, and Negro Population, 1960 and 1950, by State.” https://www.census.gov/library/publications/1966/dec/population-pc-s1-52.html.
1970—Crime: [Census] Subject Reports, Persons in Institutions [PC(2)-4E] table 3, “Age of Persons Under Custody…” https://www.census.gov/library/publications/1973/dec/pc-2-4e.html. Population: [Census] Supplementary Report, Race of the Population of the United States [PC(S1)-11] table 60, “Race of the Population for Regions, Divisions, and States: 1970.” https://www.census.gov/library/publications/1972/dec/pc-s1-11.html.
1980—Crime: [Census] Subject Reports, Persons in Institutions [PC80-2-4D] table 14, “Selected Characteristics of Inmates of Correctional Institutions by Type of Control of Institution: 1980.” https://www.google.com/books/edition/1980_Census_of_Population/A7U2XflghPEC?hl=en&gbpv=0. Population: [Census] General Social and Economic Characteristics [PC80-1] (United States) table 77, “Nativity by Race: 1900 to 1980.” https://www.census.gov/library/publications/1980/dec/population-volume-1.html.
1990—Crime: [BJS] Census of State and Federal Correctional Facilities (Full Report) table 3, “Number in Inmates/Residents in State and Federal Correction Facilities, by Race, Hispanic Origin, Jurisdiction and Region, June 29, 1990.” https://bjs.ojp.gov/library/publications/census-state-and-federal-correctional-facilities-1990-0. Population: [Census] General Population Characteristics [CP-1] (United States) table 3, “Race and Hispanic Origin: 1990.” https://www.census.gov/library/publications/1992/dec/cp-1.html.
2001—Crime: [BJS] Prisoners in 2000 (Full Report) table 14, “Number of Sentenced Prisoners under State or Federal Jurisdiction, by Gender, Race, Hispanic Origin, and Age, 2000.” https://bjs.ojp.gov/library/publications/prisoners-2000. Population: [Census] Profiles of General Demographic Characteristics [DP-1] table DP-1 (United States), “Profile of General Demographic Characteristics: 2000.” https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2001/dec/2kh.html.
2011—Crime: [BJS] Prisoners in 2010 (Revised; Full Report) Appendix table 13, “Estimated Number of Sentenced Prisoners under State and Federal Jurisdiction by Sex, Race, Hispanic Origin, and Age, December 31, 2010.” Population: [Census] Summary of Population and Housing Statistics (United States) table 2, “Race and Hispanic or Latino Origin: 2010.” https://www.census.gov/library/publications/2012/dec/cph-1.html.
2020—Crime: [BJS] Prisoners in 2020—Statistical Tables (Full Report) table 3, “Sentenced Prisoners under the Jurisdiction of State or Federal Correctional Authorities, by Jurisdiction, Sex, and Race or Ethnicity, 2010-2020.” https://bjs.ojp.gov/library/publications/prisoners-2020-statistical-tables. Population: [Census] Profile of General Population (DP1). https://data.census.gov/table?g=010XX00US&d=DEC+Demographic+Profile.
Who would have ever imagined that more black people are incarcerated because more black people commit crimes?
Bizarre.
It looks like 1930 was the least racist period in America. Or maybe black communities just had more criminals running around, but those criminals never left the community to encounter police.