Calculating the Aboriginal Crime Rate

Putting 13/50 to shame

In this article, I will calculate the crime rate of Aboriginals. This was difficult for three reasons:

Number one, the Australian government doesn’t record their crime rate.

Number two, even if they did, they don’t classify Aboriginals properly. Most of the government-approved Aboriginals are majority white, and look like this:

Finally, I can’t even look through the mugshots to figure out how many of the jailed Aboriginals are legitimate because mugshots aren’t publicly available here like they are in the U.S. It looks impossible to figure this out, but fear not because I discovered a way!

FYI, this is part two of my calculating crime series. In the first article, I calculated if American lynch mobs were justified. I’m not gonna tell you what answer I got, but you can probably infer what it was.

But now to this article.

To work out the Aboriginal crime rate, I need their population and their incarceration rate. We have an idea of the number of government-approved Aboriginals (a little under a million), but how many are full-blooded? I tried Googling it because maybe someone else has already figured it out. Hmm. Let’s see here:

“The concept of full-blooded is often viewed as outdated and problematic as it implies a racial purity that does not accurately reflect the complex social-” yeah yeah yeah just gimme the answer you stupid website. Ugh.

I found some answers from guys who think it’s less than 10,000, but… I think they’re just guessing.

None of the websites from Google gave me a reliable answer, and as you’ve already seen, many of them lectured me for having the audacity to ask such a question in the first place.

So whatever, I’ll just calculate it myself.

The modern Census merely asks people if they consider themselves Aboriginal, so it’s completely useless. But the one in 1966 required people to actually be more than 50% Aboriginal. Very good. If it wasn’t for this one census, I don’t think I would ever be able to work this out. At the time, 86,000 people were over 50%. This is a fair bit more than the number of true full-bloods. I know some of you won’t be happy with this, but for the rest of the article, that 50% threshold will be the criteria I will use too. The pure-blood investigation ended up leading to too many dead ends.

This website told me their birth rate over different years:

It was 5.52 in the late sixties, and the average age of pregnancy then was about 23.7 years. I’ll assume equal numbers of men and women and divide their birth rate by 2.1 to work out how much the population increases after one generation. Then, I’ll take its 23.7th root to get the yearly change. Finally, I’ll take it to the power of how ever many years have passed, then multiply it by the starting Aboriginal population. Today, this would give us around 178,000 real Aboriginals or 0.67% of the total population.

The last thing we need is to work out how many are in jail, which I’ll be using as a proxy for criminality. I’m doing this because even though the government doesn’t record how much crime they commit, they do record their incarceration rate. 36% of the people in jail are government-approved Aboriginals. Now I just need to find out what proportion of these are legitimate. I don’t need the mugshots to work this out because when an Aboriginal dies in jail, they often have their photos shown in the media, so these are what I will use. I am aware that this won’t be a perfectly representative sample. The fact that these ones died adds a variable, but I don’t think it’ll affect things too much. Even if it does, Aboriginals are less likely to die in jail than other people, so my final calculation will probably end up underestimating their criminality, if anything.¹ As I look through their pictures, I will decide how many have over 50% Aboriginal DNA. This is a **very** scientific way to do it, unironically. Me squinting at their picture for a few seconds and being like, “you are a real Aboriginal” or “you are not” is far better than going by their own sense of identity.

This document will be linked below along with the spreadsheet. I ended up classifying 62% of the jailed Aboriginals as legitimate, and since 36% of the people in jail are government-approved Aboriginals, if I multiply them together, I’ll get the percent of prison inmates who are real Aboriginals—22.3%. I also worked out the margin of error. To do that, I started with this number:

And put it in this equation:

Then I did this:

Then this:

Then that:

Then that (I’m really good at explaining things by the way):

Then I got the answer. I used a 95% confidence interval here, which is what the polling agencies in America use, ‘cause if you can’t trust them, who can you trust? And to be extra certain, I did 99% too.

The reason why the MOEs are so large is because, despite what these protesters say, not many Aboriginals die in custody, so my sample size was low. So, 0.67% of the population and 22.3% of the jailed people are real Aboriginals. In America, they say 13 does 50. Well here, 0.67 does 22. I then put those numbers into this equation (the same one that I used in the first article), and it turns out that an Aboriginal is 43 times more likely to go to jail than other Australians.

To put this into perspective, black Americans are “only” three-and-a-half to five-and-a-half times more likely to be incarcerated than American whites, depending on what source you use. Next, we can break it down by the type of crime. And for some crimes, they don’t do too bad (See? I’m saying nice things about them). For example, 5% of the jailed Aboriginals are there for murder, but it’s 8.44% for everyone else. Well done Aboriginals, well done.

This means that they don’t murder 43 times as much as the average, they only murder, uh, 25 times the average.

And you thought that was good? Well, they only take drugs nine times as much!

Indeed, their crime profile skews more towards home invasions, robbery, and wife beating. It’s surprisingly different from American blacks who focus more on murder. But even though the ratios are different, the fact that the crime baseline is so much higher for Aboriginals means they do end up committing more of every crime compared to the blacks, including murder.

Now, in conclusion, I don’t wanna give the wrong impression. I’m not saying that every Aboriginal is a violent criminal, m’kay? All I’m saying is that if you lived in an Aboriginal community, it would be about as dangerous as living next to ~472 active volcanoes.

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Link to spreadsheet:

mega.nz/file/WoQUkYbB#agLkoJD-_ZZvRMDD-r47J5giXNgrfaQrAAUsdysRdzM

Link to classifications doc:

mega.nz/file/i9owQL5a#EJFqBRUHWUI1NTojztLqhtP8rvbuwUnP9DIosBzuBWg

1. TL;DR: